Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 21.250648 23.092668 25.085090 27.411518 30.067668 33.022854 36.583471
2025-08-24 18.094081 20.553427 23.397011 26.970202 31.401938 36.803512 44.023753
2025-08-31 16.040860 18.807662 22.166067 26.627843 32.536981 40.307921 51.694047
2025-09-07 14.573165 17.506183 21.203328 26.339156 33.521508 43.608348 59.677607
2025-09-14 13.470617 16.503556 20.447158 26.135150 34.474491 46.899681 68.321581
2025-09-21 12.508187 15.569411 19.651548 25.726005 34.997552 49.549026 76.526878
2025-09-28 12.166789 15.418270 19.880794 26.766962 37.794568 56.249320 93.839565
2025-10-05 11.530825 14.799901 19.380329 26.638844 38.688787 59.881708 106.483177
2025-10-12 10.992384 14.272739 18.956521 26.563853 39.629847 63.746300 121.063625
2025-10-19 10.632230 13.970550 18.831425 26.934012 41.369188 69.475151 142.586998
2025-10-26 10.191468 13.518323 18.438764 26.814522 42.192799 73.520923 161.827903
2025-11-02 9.749938 13.036580 17.962744 26.501408 42.598425 76.750806 180.557622
2025-11-09 9.402644 12.682884 17.672095 26.496069 43.635450 81.753478 208.736477
2025-11-16 9.025517 12.263397 17.249031 26.218365 44.093421 85.533121 235.824352
2025-11-23 8.678095 11.871034 16.843745 25.933765 44.496413 89.300868 266.501797
2025-11-30 8.362299 11.511513 16.468961 25.669540 44.904231 93.211270 302.194998
2025-12-07 8.083905 11.196835 16.148709 25.477257 45.441855 97.656116 346.439710
2025-12-14 7.789475 10.842938 15.741788 25.084320 45.471958 100.658363 387.300814
2025-12-21 7.756122 10.904398 16.042404 26.087596 48.905964 115.351254 536.275195
2025-12-28 7.537305 10.654059 15.788215 25.964333 49.606290 121.425112 637.567504
2026-01-04 7.340316 10.430809 15.568739 25.892143 50.426634 128.284771 772.201488
2026-01-11 7.220386 10.329202 15.558075 26.248660 52.413434 140.422117 1035.047905
2026-01-18 7.037544 10.114755 15.332866 26.133591 53.131044 147.926439 1289.145376